January Wrap Up 2019

Greetings from Scoutable and welcome to our first newsletter of the year.

We hope you had a great holiday season and wish you the very best for 2019.

The property market (unofficially) kicked off after Australia Day, with the first round of auctions scheduled for 8th February. We have been out inspecting properties over the last few weeks and have noticed an increase in the number of buyers out looking. A few sales agents have commented that they have had more buyers inspect a listing in one Saturday than they did for a whole campaign at the end of last year. How this increased demand transacts on the auction floor will be revealed in the clearance rates over the coming months.
 
Like the beginning of last year, there are a variety of forecasts concerning the property market for 2019. Opinions are divided as to whether the market is stabilising or will undergo further correction. I think it is important to have a look at what factors affect the housing market, some of which are listed below (of course there are other factors which can affect a specific market i.e. infrastructure, zoning changes etc).
 

  • Interest rates - Adjusting interest rates is one of the most effective ways that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can drive or restrain the country’s economic growth. Lower interest rates encourage more people to borrow as buying property becomes more attractive. Moreover, repayments on existing mortgages and debts are easier to make, allowing the consumer to spend more on day to day living which in turn boosts the economy.

  • Economic growth - When an economy is strong, unemployment rates drop, wages increase and individuals are thus able to spend and/or save more. This raises confidence and people become more inclined to invest in the property market.

  • Mortgage availability -. In other words – how easy it is to gain credit from lenders. Credit conditions are determined by various global, financial, regulatory and commercial factors and generally speaking, when credit policies are good, banks and other lenders are more willing to lend, thus making it easier for consumers to borrow the funds required to purchase a property.

  • Supply - Put simply, when there is an oversupply of stock, prices tend to drop. When there is an undersupply, prices will rise. Rules and planning regulations vary greatly between federal, state and local government which can have great effect on supply levels.

 
Looking back, the slow-down in 2018 was influenced by the unavailability of funding, credit conditions and media hype.  In 2017, APRA imposed a cap on the volume of investment / interest only loans a bank can offer. Further, the government increased the foreign stamp duty surcharge from 4% to 8%. The result of this surcharge and limited availability of funding was a reduction in the number of foreign and local investors buying property in Australia. Foreign investors who had already exchanged on an off-the-plan purchase struggled to complete their purchase. The media hyped this up to say the market was crashing! Local sellers rushed to the market to sell before the market ‘crashed’, oversupplying some areas. Local buyers were sitting on their hands waiting to see if the market would drop further.
 
Looking forward, the economy is performing well, interest rates remain low, there seems to be more availability of funding, we are seeing an increase in stock levels, matched with an increase in buyer interest. From the small number of properties to transact in January, agents have commented that they have achieved better results in January compared to November / December 2018. Properties that are ticking all the boxes are continuing to sell well, properties perceived to be a little flawed are sitting on the market a little longer.
 
As always, our advice is that property is a long-term hold. There will always be movement in the market. The key is to not over extend yourself, buy in ‘blue chip’ locations (close to transport, retail facilities, CBD, schools, universities, hospitals) and do your research.

If you would like to discuss the current conditions of the market further, or are thinking of buying or investing in Australian property, get in touch to learn about Scoutable's services and how we can assist with your property search.
 
Till next month,
Kellie Landrey | Principal Buyers Agent

IN THE NEWS

SYDNEY BUYERS GETTING MORE BANG FOR BUCK
https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-buyers-get-more-bang-for-their-buck-as-house-prices-decline-domain-data-shows/amp/

PARENTS ANGRY ABOUT NEW INNER CITY SCHOOL'S CATCHMENT
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/kick-in-the-guts-parents-angry-about-new-school-s-catchment-20181216-p50ml4.html

TOORAK HOME SET TO TRADE AT $16M
https://www.domain.com.au/news/toorak-home-set-to-trade-for-about-16-million/

PROPERTY OF THE MONTH

2 CLIFFBROOK PARADE CLOVELLY

Clovelly is located 8km south-east of Sydney CBD. Arden Street and Clovelly Road provide retail facilities for the local area. Clovelly is surrounded by the suburbs of Bronte in the north, Randwick in the west and Coogee in the south. Gordon’s Bay is a secluded oasis, hidden north of Coogee Beach and south of Clovelly Beach. It can only be accessed via the Coastal Walkway and parking is available at either Coogee or Clovelly Beach. On a sunny day you will find people basking in the sun, swimming, snorkelling and diving in the tranquil waters.
 
Location Location Location is the best way to describe 2 Cliffbrook Parade Clovelly. The property’s expansive views over Gordon’s Bay is the biggest selling point of this original home. The second selling point is the property’s land area of 500sqm. The house is presented in original rentable condition, accommodating six bedrooms over three levels, serviced by three and a half bathrooms, various living spaces, parking for two cars and good size backyard. The property provides water views from each level and extensive scope to renovate to take advantage of the views.
 
The price guide is $6,500,000 - $7,500,000.
 
If you would like to know more about this property or any others, please get in touch.

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September Wrap Up 2018

Greetings from Scoutable and welcome to our September Wrap Up. I hope you had a lovely weekend.

September saw 3,432 properties scheduled for auction across Sydney, with an average clearance rate of 55%. Melbourne saw 3,922 properties scheduled, with an average clearance rate of 58%. Brisbane saw 628 properties scheduled for auction with an average clearance rate of 44%. In comparison, September last year had an average clearance rate of 68% (4,869 properties), 77% (5,137 properties), & 40% (1,481 properties) respectively.

The above data is showing a drop in clearance rates of 13% in Sydney and 19% in Melbourne, while Brisbane is up 4%, for the September year on year comparison. Across the three cities, there has been a significant drop in the number of properties scheduled for auction however, the numbers are up from last month (excluding the long weekend) as expected in the spring market.

When I was going through various news articles to share with you in this wrap up, I found a lot of doom and gloom on the property market. I think the media can get carried away and it seems I’m not the only one – see an article below that references a recent alarmist 60 Minutes segment. So, I thought why don’t we look at what a respected industry research company had to say about the property market over the next few years.

BIS Oxford Economics each year releases a forecast report called Residential Property Prospects. Let's take a look at the report for 2018-2021.

We all know, the market has hit it's peak as house price growth has slowed across most of Australia. It would be impossible to maintain the double-digit growth rates that the market has seen over the last few years.

Let’s start with the important news in this report. BIS state that the housing market will not crash, with the support of low interest rates, a “relatively stable, albeit subdued, economic environment” and strong population growth.

So why the slow down? BIS suggest the current lull is a result of tighter lending criteria, especially with respect to interest only loans. This limited ability to obtain interest only loans, is effecting the borrowing capacity for investors and the appeal for some investors on utilising negative gearing (only the interest component of the loan payments is deductible debt). The withdrawal of investors is having a similar effect on the market as would an increase in interest rates – it is slowing down the market. This is good news for first home buyers.
 
Further drivers to the slow down include; affordability constraints, weak wage growth, an increased supply of apartments and large levels of construction, which may lead to an oversupply of apartments in the inner cities of Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and to a lesser extent Melbourne.

Over the next 12 months, taking inflation into account, modest price declines were forecast in most capital cities. The three years to follow will bring a turn around and show price growth, though the results fragmented. Please see graph below.

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Looking beyond 2021, there’s potential for higher growth should overseas migration inflows be sustained over the coming years - which is likely. Supply falls back to below underlying demands and the economy strengthens. The recent construction boom and oversupply of new dwellings will be absorbed by population growth although BIS states that any growth in rental will be minimal.

It is important to remember that research like the above is taking into consideration the capital cities as a whole. Each region within the city will perform differently. Some areas will outperform whilst others underperform. When investing, consideration must be given to what is driving demand for property in that area. How close is the suburb to public transport? work hubs? retail facilities? any public infrastructure scheduled? how available is land for redevelopment?

As always, property investing is not meant to be a short-term hold. We believe there are some great buying opportunities out there with an outlook to the future.

If you're thinking of buying or investing in Australian property, get in touch to learn about Scoutable services and how we can assist with your property search. 


Until next month,

Kellie Landrey | Principal Buyers Agent

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IN THE NEWS

SOME OF AUSTRALIA'S  BEST INTERIORS
https://www.dezeen.com/2018/09/29/eight-australian-homes-best-interior-design/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Dezeen%20Digest&utm_content=Daily%20Dezeen%20Digest+CID_0b62691a9868d4fbc1a2b6ca06ff4346&utm_source=Dezeen%20Mail&utm_term=Dezeen%20roundups%20Aussie%20homes

AUSTRALIA'S MOST EXPENSIVE HOUSE, SOLD!
https://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/nsw/point-piper-estate-fairwater-sells-in-record-deal-making-it-australias-most-expensive-house-20180927-h15xin

ALARMIST HEADLINES SERVE NO PURPOSE
https://www.therealestateconversation.com.au/blog/victor-kumar/alarmist-headlines-serve-no-purpose/victor-kumar-right-property-group/60-minutes

PROPERTY OF THE MONTH

2 HENNINGS LANE NEWTOWN

Newtown is a suburb of Sydney’s inner west, located on Gadigal land of the Eora Nation, approximately four kilometres from the CBD. It was established as a residential and farming area in the early 19th Century and took its name, arguably, from one of two sources. A grocery store that opened in 1832 with signage that read “New Town Stores”, and “Newtown House” which was built around the same time. The name New Town was adopted and the space was eventually removed to form the name Newtown.
 
Continuing with our love of inner-west warehouses, we introduce you to 2 Hennings Lane. It was originally the Newtown Bakery and for the last three decades has been operating as an upholsterer’s and antiques workshop.
 
The warehouse comprises 292sqm of land providing 405sqm of internal floor space and 65sqm of outdoor space. Skylights and a wall of east facing windows flood the interiors, exposing raw textures of brick, steel, concrete and timber.
 
Spread over two floors, the ground level offers very basic kitchen and bathroom facilities which adjoin a large area currently configured to home separate workshops.
 
Take either of the two extra wide staircases to the upper level (a room 19 metres long requires two!) to reveal another vast expanse of space (140sqm) and a slightly smaller second room which you would imagine to be the main bedroom - even though it’s the size of an average two bedroom apartment.  Original barn doors open to timber decking which overlooks the internal courtyard that houses large trees that reach for the sky, giving it a mystical “Great Expectations” kind of ambience.

Please see the video link below as the photos do not do it nearly enough justice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKXdaAkVZO8

While it’s not currently set up as a home, it has been approved for home conversion with existing commercial rights meaning it has potential to be an incredible home, commercial space or both. 
 
The price guide is $3,300,000.
 
If you’d like to know more about this property or any others, please get in touch.

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